The New Immigration Backlash: What’s Driving the Anti-Immigration Wave in Canada, the U.S., the U.K. and Europe?

Across many advanced economies, immigration has moved from a background policy topic to a top-of-mind political fault line. Housing shortages, wage anxiety, strained services, online misinformation, and record (or perceived record) irregular arrivals have produced a visible backlash—while governments simultaneously depend on newcomers to fill jobs and sustain aging populations. Here’s what’s really going on.

1) What the numbers say pressure points and trend reversals

• United States (southwest border): After historic highs in 2023–early 2024, U.S. authorities reported sharp declines in 2025. CBP said May 2025 southwest-border apprehensions between ports of entry fell 93% year-over-year, and June 2025 encounters hit the lowest monthly total in agency history. U.S. Customs and Border Protection+1
• United Kingdom (Channel “small boats”): Crossings spiked in recent years and remain a political flashpoint, but official weekly tallies show highly variable flows; August 2025 registered several zero-crossing days and a markedly lower month than a year prior. The government cites tougher enforcement against smuggling gangs. GOV.UK+1Financial Times
• European Union: Irregular entries dropped materially in 2024 and again in 2025 (down ~20% in the first half; ~18% in the first seven months), though the Central Mediterranean remains pressured. Frontex+2Frontex+2
• Canada: Ottawa is reducing temporary-resident volumes—capping study permits (target ~437,000 in 2025) and retooling post-graduation work permits—to tamp demand for housing and services. Early 2025 data suggest fewer international students and a higher share of work-permit arrivals. Canada.cadentons.comThe Economic Times

Takeaway: Despite the rhetoric, several hotspots show declining irregular entries in 2025. But the cumulative strain from prior surges, backlogs, and housing shortfalls continues to fuel public frustration.

2) Why the backlash now?

Housing scarcity meets migration inflows

Newcomers typically cluster in big metros already short of homes. When rents and prices surge, immigration becomes a proxy for broader housing policy failures. Canada’s federal caps on certain temporary streams explicitly link volumes to “sustainable” pressure on housing and services. Canada.ca

Service capacity and backlogs

Asylum systems in the U.S., U.K., and parts of the EU face large case backlogs. In Britain, the choice to house tens of thousands of asylum seekers in hotels ignited national controversy and protests; the government has pledged to phase out hotel use while tightening family-reunion rules. The Washington PostFinancial TimesThe Guardian

Labour market friction and wage anxiety

Employers say they need workers; voters fear wage compression. Where legal pathways don’t match labour demand (caregiving, construction, agriculture), irregular or precarious work can flourish—fueling perceptions that “the system is broken.”

Smuggling networks and riskier routes

Criminal networks adapt quickly, shifting routes and tactics. Authorities report that fewer Channel crossings can mean more overcrowded boats, increasing risk even as totals dip. The Guardian

Online virality and politicization

High-salience incidents (crime allegations, encampments, hotel protests) spread rapidly online, often detached from context. Politicians across the spectrum amplify or counter these narratives, turning migration into a symbolic stand-in for identity, order, and economic control. The Washington Post

3) The “undocumented” question: why irregular migration persists

Even when governments tighten rules, three forces keep irregular flows alive:

1. Push factors: conflict, persecution, state collapse, and climate shocks make staying put dangerous or impossible. (The Central Med route remains pressured despite EU-wide declines.) Frontex
2. Pull factors: family ties, job prospects, and relatively higher safety nets in destination countries.
3. System gaps: legal pathways rarely match the speed or scale of humanitarian needs or employer demand, incentivizing risky journeys and smugglers—especially when asylum adjudication is slow and outcomes uncertain. The Washington Post

4) How governments are responding

• United States: A mix of enforcement (historically low 2025 encounters), regional cooperation, and limited legal pathways experiments. Washington emphasizes deterrence and expedited removals while claiming operational “control” improvements. U.S. Customs and Border Protection+1
• United Kingdom: Tougher asylum and family-reunion rules, bilateral enforcement with France, and vows to end hotel use. Crossings remain a political lightning rod shaping party fortunes. Financial TimesGOV.UK
• European Union: More Frontex support, third-country partnerships, and asylum-procedures reform while highlighting the 2024–25 decline in irregular entries. Frontex+1
• Canada: Volume management (student caps, PGWP changes), and talk of aligning temporary streams with housing and labour capacity. Ottawa frames this as making migration “sustainable,” not shutting it down. Canada.cadentons.com

5) Why anti-immigration sentiment is spreading—even where flows are falling

• Lived experience vs. macro data: People feel rent hikes, crowded transit, and GP wait times more than they see line charts. When governments seem reactive, trust erodes.
• Policy lag: Even if irregular numbers drop, backlogs and hotel use keep the issue visible for years. The Washington Post
• Identity politics: Parties on the right leverage border control as a core brand; parties on the left risk losing working-class voters if they appear indifferent to disorder. The result: tougher rhetoric almost everywhere, even as economies still need workers.
• Media incentives: Dramatic images (boat landings, encampments) dominate coverage; successful integration stories rarely go viral.

6) The costs of getting it wrong

• Humanitarian: Riskier crossings, exploitation by smugglers, and prolonged uncertainty harm asylum seekers and erode international norms. The Washington Post
• Economic: Hard caps that overshoot can worsen labour shortages (healthcare, construction, food services), undercut growth, and delay housing builds meant to ease the very pressure driving the backlash. Canada.ca
• Political: When promises (e.g., “stop the boats” or “end hotels”) collide with operational reality, disillusionment feeds further polarization. The Washington Post

7) What a workable reset could look like

1. Match legal pathways to real labour needs (construction, elder care, agrifood), with employer compliance audits to protect wages.
2. Build housing faster where migrants actually settle—tying federal intake targets to municipal building starts and transit capacity (Canada has taken first steps by linking volumes to “sustainable” capacity). Canada.ca
3. Shrink asylum backlogs via surge staffing, fast-track dockets for manifestly well-founded and manifestly unfounded claims, and early legal screening to reduce procedural churn (the U.K. plans expedited processes alongside reunification changes). Financial Times
4. Target smugglers, not refugees, with joint financial-crime actions and data-sharing—while expanding humane alternatives to detention and community-based case management that improve compliance. Financial Times
5. Communicate with evidence: publish monthly, city-level dashboards on arrivals, processing times, housing impacts, and outcomes. Quiet progress won’t cut through without visible metrics.

Bottom line

The “anti-immigration wave” is less a simple turn against newcomers than a reaction to mismatch: too many arrivals routed into a housing-starved, backlog-choked system—right as living costs spiked. Some flows are already falling (U.S. border, EU irregular crossings); others remain politically salient (U.K. small boats; Canada’s temporary-resident recalibration). Durable calm requires aligning volumes with capacity, speeding decisions, and restoring a sense of order—without losing sight of the demographic and economic lift that well-managed immigration still provides. U.S. Customs and Border Protection+1Frontex+1